Covid-19 death curve in Brazil is accelerating

by Kelvin
Covid-19 death curve in Brazil is accelerating

The number of deaths caused by the coronavirus in Brazil is growing at a faster rate than in Spain, when Europeans were in this same phase of the pandemic, which happened two weeks ago, according to the Covid-19 BR Observatory.

Based on data released by the Ministry of Health, the study, which brings together experts from seven national universities, the United States and Germany, measures the speed of the disease in Brazil and makes a comparison with statistics from other countries.

To assert that the covid-19 death curve in Brazil is faster than in Spain, the researchers calculated how long it takes for the virus to double the number of deaths. On Tuesday (21), this time was 9 days and 14 hours in the national territory, while in Spain it was 12 days and 7 hours, two weeks ago, on April 8th.

  

The shorter this time span, the more lethal the disease is in the country at that time. In other words, according to this criterion, Brazil has a worse scenario than the Spaniards, if compared to corresponding periods of advance of the new coronavirus. Such a comparison takes place on different dates because the covid-19 deaths began earlier on the European continent.

Comparison with New York

One of the epicenters of the disease currently, with more than 15,000 deaths registered until this Thursday (23), New York City is currently on the 44th day of the pandemic, with a doubling time of 12 days. But when it was on the 28th day, which occurred on April 5th, the rate of doubling was 3.5 days, a more serious situation than in Brazil today.

However, participants at the Covid-19 BR Observatory warn that a relaxation in social distancing measures can cause an “explosive increase in deaths”, in a similar way to what happened in the North American city.

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