The Ministry of Health works with grim expectations about the next two weeks of the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil: according to information from Economic value, minister Eduardo Pazuello’s advisors estimate the number of daily deaths in the country at 3,000.
The forecast takes into account a sinister conjunction of factors: the gatherings of the end of the year and Carnival, the drop in social isolation rates, the emergence of more contagious variants of the virus, the overload of hospital infrastructure in several states and the unavailability of vaccines for the Brazilian population.
How does the Ministry of Health view the states?
According to Economic value, the eyes of the federal government health team are now turning to the South region, notably in Rio Grande do Sul, where the occupation of ICU beds reached 100% this week. With similar numbers, Santa Catarina is transferring patients with covid-19 to Espírito Santo.
In the North region, what worries is the limited availability of beds, while other warnings also sounded in other states such as Goiás, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo.
The latter is considered by Pazuello’s team as the one that has best managed its hospital network, the largest in Brazil. With 60,000 of the 260,000 deaths by covid-19 registered in the country, São Paulo has an important weight in the numbers of the pandemic, and an eventual hospital collapse in the state would greatly increase the numbers of the already alarming expectations of the Ministry of Health.
The actions of the Ministry of Health
According to the Economic value, the Ministry of Health’s leadership understands that, at the moment, there is not much to be done, except to encourage the reopening of field hospitals in the states.
In the medium term, the expectations of Pazuello’s team are more positive, as vaccination is expected to accelerate from this month onwards, with an increase in the production of the Butantan Institute and Fiocruz, which should reach the milestone of 1.4 million doses daily.
As for the import of vaccines, a schedule to which Valor Econômico had access indicates the arrival of only 9 million doses of Pfizer in the first half.